The x-axis represents the proportion of patients who were incorrectly assigned to the coronary … Views on rationality: from unbounded rationality and irrationality to ecological rationality What to diagnose, whom to treat, what to eat, or which stocks to invest in—our days are filled with decisions, yet how do we make them, and how should we make them? In the decision sciences and beyond, the answer to these two questions depends on one’s view of human rationality. There are at least three views. Unbounded rationality: SNS-032 manufacturer optimization Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical The study of unbounded rationality asks the question, if people were omniscient,

that is, if they Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical could compute the future from what they know, how would they behave and how should they behave? Optimization models such as Bayesian inference and the maximization of subjective expected utility take this view.2 When judging, for instance, whom to treat, these models assume that decision makers will collect and evaluate all information, weight each piece of it according to some criterion, and then combine the pieces to maximize the chances of attaining their goals (eg, treating the needy while saving costs). Optimization under constraints,

a sub-branch of unboundedly rational optimization, refers Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical to models that do not assume full knowledge but take into account constraints, such as information costs. Optimization models are common in fields such as economics or computer science. The spirit of optimization is also reflected in the workings of the Heart Disease Predictive

Instrument, Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical which is a linear regression model that computes optimal beta weights. Irrationality: cognitive illusions and biases According to the second view, human reasoning is not characterized by optimization but by systematic deviations from optimization, also called cognitive illusions, errors, or simply irrationality. Inhibitors,research,lifescience,medical The heuristics-and-biases framework3 proposes that humans commit systematic errors when judging probabilities and making decisions. Although this framework differs therein from the optimization view, it still takes optimization — such as maximization of expected utility — as the normative yardstick against which to evaluate human decision making. Decisions that deviate from this standard can be explicated by assuming that people suffer of from cognitive limitations, such as a suboptimal information processing capacity or insufficient knowledge. Following this view, one might argue that the physicians’ large false -positive rate and below-chance performance in making allocation decisions (Figure 2) reflect the workings of their limited cognitive abilities. Ecological rationality: fast and frugal heuristics There is, however, an alternative to optimization and irrationality.